The new car tariffs on the US are stirring the market, the auto parts sector is rising, the whole car is under pressure.

Time：

2018-12-17

In the early morning of December 17, the auto parts sector and the auto vehicle market showed a "two-day" scene: more than half of Shenwan's auto parts sector rose, while the entire auto sector opened in addition to SAIC (600104). The stock price...

This phenomenon should be the direct impact of the new tax rebate policy for imported cars from the United States on Friday. On December 14, the official website of the Ministry of Finance announced that it would suspend the tariff on cars and parts that originated in the United States for three months, involving 211 tax items.

The auto parts sector has risen overall

As of the close of the morning, in the Shenwan auto parts sector, more than 70 stocks rose. Among them, Wantong Zhizhi's daily limit, Bailing Technology (002592), Xinpeng shares (002328), Joyson Electronics (600699), Bethel and other stocks rose more than 5%.

Vantone Zhikong's main business is the development, production and sales of tire valves, tire pressure monitoring systems (TPMS) and related tools and accessories. According to its announcement, the company has established long-term and stable cooperative relations with automakers such as China Strategic Group, Haltec and other auto parts suppliers and SAIC Group. In addition, the company's products are mainly sold to Europe, North America, Australia and other regions.

An obvious feature is that the Tesla concept stocks have risen collectively. As of the close of the morning, the Tesla index rose by 0.46%. Among them, Tesla concept stocks rose by 5.3%, and Changying Trust and Wencan shares rose more than 3%.

The whole vehicle sector opened lower. As of the close of the morning, SAIC Group rose, and China National Heavy Duty Truck (000951), Xiaokang shares, Changan Automobile (000625) and so on rose slightly, less than 1%. Among the two domestic new energy auto stocks, Beiqi Blue Valley fell 1.89%, BYD (002594) fell 3.61%.

China suspends tariffs on imported cars and parts from the United States for three months

On the news, on December 14, the official website of the Ministry of Finance announced that it would suspend the tariff on cars and parts that originated in the United States for three months, involving 211 tax items.

These include: from January 1, 2019 to March 31, 2019, the 25% tariff on the tax items of the off-road vehicle (1.5L <2L) For the electric large passenger cars (above 30 planes), 116 tariff items were suspended for 25%; in addition, 67 tariff items were suspended for 5%.

It is understood that in 2017, China imported 1.247 million passenger cars, accounting for 4.3% of the total market sales. The United States is not the country's largest source of imported cars, and its import sales rank behind Japan and Germany, but the Chinese car sales market has a place in the world. Especially emerging car manufacturers such as Tesla.

At present, China's taxes on automobiles are mainly including value-added tax, consumption tax, customs duties, and super-luxury car consumption tax. Previously, due to Sino-US trade friction, China imposed an additional 25% retaliatory tariff on cars originating in the United States on July 6, so the actual tariff on imported American cars increased to 40%.

This policy has a significant impact on the sales of imported American cars. China Customs has released data. In the first three quarters of this year, the number of customs declarations for US-made cars was 159,000, a year-on-year decrease of 27.8%. Especially in July-September this year, the monthly customs declaration volume dropped sharply year-on-year. According to the statistics of the Federation, Tesla's sales in China fell 37% in the third quarter, and sales in October this year plummeted 70%.

Some auto professionals said that the adjustment of trade policy this year has led to significant changes in the structure of the car terminal. Due to the impact of tariffs, European and American consumers are more awaiting sentiment than purchases, affecting the decline in total imports; while Japanese cars continue to increase their share of growth. Under this circumstance, US importers such as Tesla have taken measures to sacrifice short-term gross profit for the market. The adjustment of China's tariff policy on imported cars in the United States is conducive to the recovery of US-made car imports, which is beneficial to the relevant car companies and dealers, especially Tesla's capacity in the third quarter to accelerate the climb, this tariff policy adjustment Tesla quickly lowered the price of the relevant models, which will effectively stimulate the high-end electric vehicle terminal market. In the domestic auto system, it will further promote the downward shift of the domestic car price system.

CITIC Securities (600030) analysis believes that the US import vehicle tariffs are lowered, the short-term income target is first imported car service providers, and secondly, Tesla has lowered the price of some models from November to promote sales in the Chinese market. The tariff cut will have a positive impact on the Tesla and Tesla industrial chains.

According to Lin Fan of Huajin Securities, after the adjustment of China's import tariff policy to the United States, Tesla's sales in China are expected to usher in a recovery growth, which will constitute a positive for the Tesla industrial chain.

Since the beginning of this year, the overall automobile industry in China has been sluggish, and car sales have declined for several consecutive months. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to November this year, China's automobile production and sales were 25.325 million and 25.419 million, down 2.59% and 1.65% year-on-year. Among them, the production and sales of passenger cars were 21.474 million and 21.474 million, down 3.37% and 2.77% year-on-year; the production and sales of commercial vehicles was 3.851 million and 3.941 million, up 1.97% and 5% year-on-year. However, the production and sales of new energy vehicles maintained a steady growth trend. From January to November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 1.053 million and 1,209,800 respectively, an increase of 63.63% and 68% over the same period of the previous year. Huajin Securities believes that the supply end of new energy vehicles is gradually opening up, and the probability of maintaining high growth in the industry in the future is relatively high. Therefore, the new energy automobile industry chain will also usher in rapid development.